Talking about US Economy To Start Growing in Second Half: Survey – Economy * US * News * Story – CNBC.comPosted: May 10, 2009
Well now it is semi official. As the bottom is quantified and the spiral starts to level off the analysts start to assert themselves and make projections. I was at a breakfast seminar in early January and the analyst speaking at the event could have written this article already then.
Analysts are predicting that unemployment will peak in early 2010, but what they are not predicting is how long it will take to dissipate. The reality is that it will take a long time. I believe that companies will be less risk averse in the next economic cycle. Recent articles note the administration’s interest in closing taxational loop holes for multinationals, which would impact off-shoring, but in the same time I believe that the recession has also slowed the upward spiral in wages in off-shoring centers around the world… which was starting to get out of hand.
I believe that there is a great opportunity for domestic outsourcing in the US market. I believe that we can be cost competitive, but this will impact wages and benefits for contractors. This options is however better than being unemployed. It will be interesting to see if volume domestic outsourcing centers will grow to compete effectively with their Indian counterparts. I wonder how long it would take to retrain an autoworker to specialize in a specific code library? If you were out of work without hope, would you be willing to commit to a 6 year contract with a limited pay progression that offered some pay from day one and training for a new career?